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Forex Analysis – February 9, 2010

USDCHF Analysis.
Being contained by the upper border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, USDCHF pulls back from 1.0794, suggesting that a short term cycle top is being formed. Sideways movement is more likely be seen later today and bottom of the channel would be tested by the end of the sideways movement. However, as long as the channel support holds, the price action from 1.0794 is treated as consolidation of uptrend from 1.0132, one more rise towards 1.0900 is possible after consolidation.

EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD bounces from the bottom of the falling price channel, suggesting that a short term cycle bottom is being formed at 1.3585 on 4-hour chart. Move towards the upper border of the channel is expected later today. However, the bounce from 1.3585 is more likely consolidation of downtrend from 1.4579, one more fall towards 1.3400 area is still possible after consolidation.

GBPUSD Analysis.
After touching the lower border of the falling price channel on 4-hour chart, GBPUSD bounces from 1.5534 level. A short term cycle bottom is being formed. Sideways movement could be seen later today. Resistance is at the top of the price channel. As long as the channel resistance holds, we’d expect downtrend to resume and another fall towards 1.5400-1.5500 area is still possible after consolidation.

USDCAD Analysis.
No changed in our view, USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.0224 and the fall from 1.0779 is more likely consolidation of uptrend. One more rise towards 1.1200 area is expected after consolidation. Key support is now located at 1.0545, only fall below this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0224 has completed.

USDJPY Analysis.
After a sharp drop from 91.27, USDJPY traded in a narrow range above 88.57. However, the rang trading is treated as minor consolidation of downtrend from 93.75, as long as the channel resistance holds, one more fall towards 88.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD might be forming a short term cycle bottom at 0.8577 level on 4-hour chart. Bounce towards the falling trend line is expected in a couple of day, a clear break above the trend line resistance could conform the cycle bottom and indicate that the fall from 0.9327 has completed.

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